Survey responses from chief financial officers and other financial decisionmakers yield a new measure of inflation ...

We develop a non-parametric filter that identifies sustained directional runs in shocks to monthly inflation—a concept we ...

The San Francisco Fed’s latest Advisory Council Observations offer a real‑time look at how businesses, households, and ...

AI automation typically requires task-level fixed costs, such as model training or fine-tuning. We develop a quantitative task-based framework in which automation depends jointly on relative marginal ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. The Treasury yield premium model by Jens H.E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch (CR) decomposes the nominal yield curve into three ...

SF President Mary C. Daly will join Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and Chicago Fed ...

The Weather-Adjusted Employment Change data page provides estimates of monthly weather-adjusted employment changes in the United States. Starting with the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ...

The personal consumption expenditure price index (PCEPI) is one measure of U.S. inflation, tracking the change in prices of goods and services purchased by consumers throughout the economy. Of all the ...

This site presents a real-time, quarterly series on total factor productivity (TFP) for the U.S. business sector, adjusted for variations in factor utilization – labor effort and capital’s workweek.

We develop a non-parametric filter that identifies sustained directional runs in shocks to monthly inflation—a concept we define as “inflation shock momentum.” By assessing the shocks to over 100 ...