This is a guest post by Nathan Paxton. As social scientists, at least as regards what we can empirically assess, we tend to make statements of probability rather than fact. So rather than say that ...

In this paper, we show that the conditional frequentist method of testing a precise hypothesis can be made virtually equivalent to Bayesian testing. The conditioning strategy proposed by Berger, Brown ...

What’s often misunderstood about Google’s incrementality testing and how Bayesian models use probability to guide better ...

I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do. ~ Hal The Bayesians want us to be Bayesians (e.g, Krueger, 2017). This is just as ...

WE ARE in a bar, and agree to toss a coin for the next round. Heads, I pay; tails, the drinks are on you. What are your chances of a free pint? Most people – sober ones, at least – would agree: ...

Bayes’s core contribution, which Chivers skillfully renders into cogent prose designed to educate the lay reader, is the notion that the likelihood of an event taking place in the future depends, in ...

The aim of Statistical Science is to present the full range of contemporary statistical thought at a technical level accessible to the broad community of practitioners, teachers, researchers, and ...